In the last days, we had a lot of technical details.
It was the idea to have sinking blocks.
And there's one more sinking block
which we have touched in the beginning.
And this is this discussion.
We have developed so nice models.
For example, this model here.
But what do I learn as a human being out of such a structure?
Hopefully, this is a good explanation between the inputs
and the outputs.
But how do I can clap this?
And this is the story with the sensitivity analysis,
which we have mentioned before.
But now I have to explain you how to do it really
in practice.
And so here we are.
So whitening the black box is the counter argument
against an often used argument against neural networks
that people say, yeah, this is only black box modeling, which
is a negative argument in this wording.
So you know nothing about what's really going on.
The machine is doing something.
But yeah, what is it?
And so the point here is the neural network
is a quantitative model, which in itself is a good news.
But you also have to be able to squeeze out
qualitative interpretations out of this.
Otherwise, you will lose your customers.
And there's a second point which is going the same direction.
And this is if you speak about a customer project,
then often you are sitting there in the situation
that customers tell you, yeah, we want to model the,
for example, the Siemens stock index.
But this thing depends on the complete, not only
on the German economy, it depends on worldwide economy.
So you might be forced in the direction of using hundreds
of input variables.
This is an overkill.
You might, in principle, be able to use
the hundreds of input variables to explain
whatever you want to explain.
But then you would need so many data examples
to find the interrelationship between all the variables there.
So that is hopeless.
We do not have so, and normally we do not
have so long time series there.
And so therefore, a very practical question
is how to select the reasonable input factors if I
want to do the model building.
And this, again, is a question on input-output analysis,
Presenters
Zugänglich über
Offener Zugang
Dauer
01:09:14 Min
Aufnahmedatum
2021-10-13
Hochgeladen am
2021-10-13 13:16:04
Sprache
en-US