The following content has been provided by the University of Erlangen-Nürnberg.
Okay, all right, so let's start by examining the very first slide.
And you'll notice there is no copyright on it.
You've also probably noticed that I'm incredibly old, and you're wondering,
good lord, this woman must be at least 125.
What is she doing still traveling around the world talking to people?
And the answer is that I now only talk about things that I think are very important,
and I know I'm running out of time.
So you have to help me.
So if you think the talk is worthwhile, and you learn something from it,
and you might be thinking there was somebody in your department or maybe your family
who should have heard the talk, well, just send me some email, linda at lindarising.org,
and I will send you the PowerPoint, and you can give the presentation the next time.
And that offer not only goes for this presentation,
but anything else you might Google on the web or YouTube,
and you say, oh, Linda, I'd like to have that presentation.
Just send me some email, and I'll be happy to send you the PowerPoint.
You can change it.
You can put your name on the front.
It's okay.
It's the message that counts, not the messenger.
So this is a talk about deception and estimation,
and I want to make sure, even though I know your English is very good,
that we understand if I use a term that maybe you see or interpret differently
or don't understand.
So what is deception?
Is there a German word for that?
It is what?
Okay.
Is that right?
I don't know.
And what does that mean?
Fooling someone or getting fooled?
Getting fooled or fooling someone.
Have any of you done that ever?
No?
Ah.
How many of you are married?
No.
How many of you have children?
Ah.
Okay.
Well, maybe you have.
This is the definition that I like to use,
because it speaks to the two levels in your brain.
We are wedded to the conscious mind.
We think that that's what we are all about.
We think that's what thinking is all about, what we do consciously.
But there is an unconscious below the level of awareness,
and deception can take place in both places in our brain.
Presenters
Linda Rising
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Dauer
01:40:53 Min
Aufnahmedatum
2016-05-17
Hochgeladen am
2016-05-17 18:26:18
Sprache
en-US
Cognitive scientists tell us that we are hardwired for deceptionoverly optimistic about outcomes. In fact, we surely wouldnt have survived without this trait. With this built-in bias as a starting point, its no wonder that software managers and teams almost always develop poor estimates. But that doesnt mean all is lost. We must simply accept that our estimates are optimistic guesses and continually re-evaluate as we go. Linda Rising has been part of many development projects where sincere, honest people wanted to make the best estimates possible and used scientific approaches to make it happenand all for naught. In many projects, because re-estimation was regarded as an admission of failure, the team spent too much time and endless meetings trying to get it right. Offering examples from ordinary lifeespecially from the way people eat and drinkLinda demonstrates how hard it is for us to see our poor estimating skills and offers practical advice on living and working with the self-deception that is hardwired in all of us.